A calendar with nothing on it

Renaissance Capital's week-ahead note says no IPOs are scheduled to price in the US this week. Four lock-up periods are due to expire, and street research is expected on one company. Those are the only listed events.

The quiet follows a week that was busier than it looked. Renaissance's weekly recap counted five pricings for the week of Oct. 12. Two were biotechs, two were SPACs and one was a small metal powder producer. Total new capital was modest: $150M, $200M, $100M, $75M and $20M.

For founders and CFOs, an empty calendar is not the same as a closed window. It means no issuer chose to test the market this week. The reasons are worth separating, because they point to different decisions.

The index flipped from ahead to behind

Two weeks ago the picture looked better for new issues. Renaissance's Oct. 2 note put its IPO Index up 16.4% year to date as of Oct. 1, against 13.0% for the S&P 500. By Oct. 15, the Oct. 16 note put the index up 12.1% against 14.2% for the S&P 500.

In two weeks, the gap went from 3.4 points in favor of recent IPOs to 2.1 points against. That is the number to hold when an underwriter says the aftermarket is healthy. Investors who bought new issues are currently doing worse than investors who bought the index.

The weekly winners and losers list shows where the damage sits. Through Oct. 16, Renaissance's list had Bending Spoons (BSP) up 23.8% on the week and Arxis (ARXS) up 13.0%. On the other side were Fervo Energy (FRVO) down 29.6%, CoreWeave (CRWV) down 25.2%, X-Energy (XE) down 24.4%, Cerebras Systems (CBRS) down 22.5% and Forgent Power Solutions (FPS) down 20.9%. The page does not say whether those moves are for one week or for a longer period, so treat them as a snapshot of which recent names are under pressure, not as a measure of any one stock's history.

Several of the weakest names, including CoreWeave, Cerebras and X-Energy, are tied to AI infrastructure and power. That is where aftermarket pressure is visible this week.

What the biotechs showed

The healthcare deals that did price held up. City Therapeutics (CTY) priced an upsized offering of 11.1 million shares at $18, the midpoint of a $17 to $19 range, raising $200M at a fully diluted value of about $1.0B. It is a Phase 1 RNA interference company whose lead candidate targets Factor XI.

Per the recap, City finished its first day up 24%. Iambic Therapeutics (IAM), a Phase 1 AI-driven small molecule cancer developer, raised $150M at $16 and was up 18% on day one and 49% by Oct. 16.

Notice the pattern. Both priced at the midpoint, not above it. Demand was good enough to upsize one deal and lift both after pricing, but not so strong that bankers raised the range. That is a market that pays for a clear story but is not handing out premium pricing.

A smaller deal shows the other side. Amaero (AMRO), the metal powder producer, downsized to $20M and priced 40% below the midpoint, though it still finished the week up about 6%. A weaker book can still trade fine afterward, but the issuer takes the cost at pricing, when it sells the stock.

Klook pulls out

The most useful data point for planners may be a withdrawal. Klook Technology, the pan-Asian travel booking platform, withdrew its US IPO plans on Friday. It had filed in November 2025 with an estimated deal size of $400M and planned to list on the NYSE as KLK. Eight banks were set as joint bookrunners, including Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Citi. Renaissance says it never updated its prospectus after the first filing, and it does not give a reason for the withdrawal.

Without a stated reason, avoid over-reading it. The facts alone still carry a lesson for private companies. A public filing starts a clock. Financial statements go stale, and a prospectus that sits for roughly eleven months without an update tells the market the deal is waiting for something. Companies that file publicly and then wait are taking on visibility costs without a pricing date.

The SPAC lane is still open, and small

SPACs remain a smaller channel. Two priced last week: TCGX Acquisition II (TCXB), a $100M vehicle targeting healthcare in Asia, and Frazier Life Sciences II (FLSC), a $75M biotech-focused vehicle. Two more filed: Apex Treasury II (APTTU) at $250M, aimed at AI infrastructure, energy, defense, space and fintech, and EuroSPAC Acquisition (ESPCU.RC) at $125M, aimed at industrials. Per the recap, those were the only new filings of the week, and no operating-company IPO filed.

That last detail is the quiet signal. With no operating-company IPOs filing, the pipeline for the next few weeks is thin.

The Anthropic shadow

Much of the market is waiting on one name. Renaissance reports that Anthropic is reportedly targeting a mid-November listing and could file as early as this Friday, though recent reports suggest the timing may have slipped to before year-end. These are reports, not company statements, and the Oct. 2 note had said marketing could begin as soon as the week of Nov. 9.

For other issuers, the practical question is crowding. A very large offering can absorb investor attention and allocation capacity, and some companies may prefer to price ahead of it or well after it. Which they choose is a judgment call, and the timing is not set.

What to watch

  • The index gap. Whether the Renaissance IPO Index recovers to the S&P 500's 14.2% (as of Oct. 15) or falls further behind will shape how bankers pitch valuations.
  • Pricing versus range. Midpoint pricing with first-day pops is healthy. Downsized deals and below-range pricing are the warning signs.
  • Public filings. Watch for the first operating-company IPO filings since the quiet stretch. If none appear, expect a thin November before any large deal.
  • Lock-up expirations. Four are due this week, and early sellers affect how recent issues trade.

Founders weighing a listing should treat this as a planning environment, not a verdict: the window works for companies with a clear story and a fair price, and it punishes those that arrive early and wait.

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